Alphabet Inc.
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7Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) 投资分析
主要经营地
全球（互联网与云）
详细的生意模式
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核心：搜索/YouTube 广告；增量：Cloud、订阅/硬件等
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现金流极强，资本开支与AI投入影响短期FCF表观
护城河
✅数据与分发入口、生态系统（Android/Chrome/YouTube）
✅规模与算力投入形成“资本壁垒”
⚠️监管与AI对搜索范式的潜在冲击
估值水平
FCF/EV=1.1%（≈EV/FCF 94.4x）（YB口径）
EV/Market Cap
0.98x
网络观点
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作者全年大幅盈利并提高权重；强调营收增速走强、经营利润率稳健
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作为组合核心“质量资产”持有
AI的观点
🌟超高质量，但“价值感”取决于你如何看 AI 投入期的回报与监管风险
✅看点：搜索与视频生态的持续变现、Cloud 规模效应、回购能力
⚠️要核对：AI带来的单位经济变化（流量获取成本、算力成本）、广告ROI与份额、监管诉讼进展
❌风险：若AI重塑搜索入口并压缩利润率，估值体系会重定价
Alphabet: Still Undervalued Despite AI Concerns
Pabrai argues that Alphabet's search monopoly and YouTube dominance are underappreciated. The market is overly focused on AI competition risks while ignoring Google's massive distribution advantage.
Google's investment thesis summarized
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Margins expanding to 23.7%
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$155B Cloud backlog (+46% QoQ)
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Cloud revenue accelerating (+34% YoY)
Google's investment thesis summarized
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Margins expanding to 23.7%
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$155B Cloud backlog (+46% QoQ)
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Cloud revenue accelerating (+34% YoY)
Deep Dive: Alphabet Inc. ($GOOG) Part 2
In this deep dive, the author performs a "sum of parts" valuation for Alphabet, arguing it's a more accurate method than a single DCF for a complex company. The analysis projects each business segment's revenue and EBIT to 2030, applies EV/EBIT multiples, and discounts the values back to 2025. The author conservatively estimates Google Search's growth at 5% annually due to competition, while the Google Network is projected to decline. YouTube's ad revenue is highlighted as a key growth driver, expected to grow from $36B in 2024 to $61B in 2030.
谷歌是当今世界上最重要的知识基础设施之一。搜索引擎的网络效应、YouTube的内容生态、以及在AI领域的深厚积累，使其成为数字时代的核心资产。
谷歌的搜索业务拥有近乎垄断的地位，YouTube和云计算也在快速增长。AI时代谷歌有很强的竞争力，但需要关注监管风险。
Google的搜索引擎是互联网时代的"收费桥"。当人们想找信息时，他们去Google。这种习惯几乎不可能被改变。YouTube也是一个被低估的资产——它正在成为下一代的电视。我们在这个价位增持是因为估值变得合理了。