KSPI

This video provides a brief analysis of Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (ticker: KSPI), a $13.52 billion consumer finance company based in Kazakhstan. The Seeking Alpha Quant system and Seeking Alpha analysts both rate the stock as a "Hold," while Wall Street analysts give it a "Strong Buy." The analysis highlights the company's strong factor grades for Valuation (A) and Growth (B+), driven by a low EV/EBITDA ratio and impressive year-over-year revenue growth of 54.22%. However, the stock shows weakness in Momentum (D-) due to a significant one-year price drop of 31.72%. The Revisions grade is a C- based on mixed earnings per share revisions over the last three months.

Kaspi.kz is a super app in Kazakhstan with a dominant market position in payments, e-commerce, and fintech, used by 75% of the population. The company exhibits strong financial characteristics, including a low P/E ratio (7x TTM, 6.5x forward), high ROE (>50%), and significant earnings growth (>25%). Despite its impressive performance and valuation, the stock faces risks related to geopolitical instability (Russia), currency fluctuations, and uncertainties surrounding its expansion into Turkey. A short report from Culper Research raised concerns, but the author suggests they are largely debunked. The investment thesis hinges on whether the company's strong fundamentals and cheap valuation outweigh the macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.