NFLX

主要经营地

全球（美国总部）

详细的生意模式

流媒体订阅+广告变现平台，通过内容投入吸引用户，再通过提价、广告层与账户共享治理提升ARPU与利润。

护城河

全球规模+品牌+内容/推荐系统；在内容采购与分发上有议价与规模优势。

估值水平

FCF/EV 7.6%；EV/EBITDA 23.2x；PE 30.4x

EV/Market Cap

1.02x

网络观点

✅看多/观察：作者认为股价较内在价值折价约30%；盈利与FCF增长成为主线，广告收入成为新引擎。

AI的观点

我的判断：商业模式已从“用户数故事”切到“利润率/现金流故事”。YB口径FCF很高，建议核对内容资本化与摊销口径后再看真实自由现金流。若广告与价格策略持续兑现，长期仍是优质资产；价值投资的买点通常来自市场对内容投入/竞争的恐慌时刻。

作者简介

专业投资者否；顶级作者否；13F持仓否；1年回报20.8%；历史总回报22.4% (22 trades)

A comprehensive analysis of Netflix (NFLX). The company is shifting its focus from subscriber growth to profit growth, driven by advertising revenue and content expansion. The author believes that Netflix has a narrow economic moat due to its large subscriber base and engagement data. The author provides a fair price estimate and an investment thesis.

Netflix is trading at the same levels it did in November 2024, -33.5% from all-time highs.

Netflix is trading at the same levels it did in November 2024, -33.5% from all-time highs.