amateurcapital.substack.com/@amateur-capital
Bio
Sam Hodges is the author of the Amateur Capital Substack, where he shares his investment analysis. He primarily focuses on investing in ASX-listed micro-cap companies. His writing provides insights and thoughts on various small companies on the Australian stock exchange.
Ideas
3 Ideas
Selling Certainty When the Weather Turns Aeeris Asxaer
主要经营地
澳大利亚/新西兰为主（保险、建筑等）
详细的生意模式
• 天气/气候智能 SaaS：极端天气预警、冰雹追踪、保险禁入区自动化、气候风险分析
• 面向保险、建筑、政府/公用事业等；订阅为主、深度系统集成
护城河
✅数据/模型与客户流程集成带来一定粘性
⚠️体量小，竞争与议价能力有限；商业化与获客效率决定成败
估值水平
EV/EBITDA=-9.3x（当前亏损）
EV/Market Cap
0.83x
网络观点
• 作者强调“气候风险是确定性趋势”，公司提供可直接落地的保险/风控工具
• 微小市值下，若续费与扩张兑现，有“期权属性”
AI的观点
🌟更像小盘 SaaS 期权，不是传统价值股
✅看点：若客户嵌入理赔/承保流程，切换成本会提高
⚠️要核对：NRR/流失率、单位经济模型、现金消耗与融资风险、客户集中度
❌风险：规模上不去→长期亏损稀释股东
Selling Certainty When the Weather Turns: Aeeris (ASX:AER)
Aeeris Ltd (ASX:AER) is a small, $7.5m market cap company on the ASX that provides weather and climate intelligence to organizations. The company is about to inflect to profitability, has sticky customers, and has shown encouraging numbers in its Q2 FY26 report. Aeeris's proprietary platform, AWARE, reduces reliance on third-party data, leading to margin expansion. The company has a strong foothold in the insurance sector and is expanding into other areas like rail and solar. With mandatory climate reporting on the horizon, Aeeris's Climatics platform is well-positioned for growth.
Learning the Hard Way - Academies Australasia (ASX:AKG)
Academies Australasia (ASX:AKG) is a small education operator with campuses in Australia and Singapore. The company has high operating leverage due to its fixed cost base, but has been hit by changes in Australian international student policy. While the company has shown some green shoots with strong growth in higher education and its Singapore operations, it also has significant debt and lease liabilities, making it a risky investment. The author concludes that it is 'Potentially interesting' but will 'watch and wait for now'.