TSLA

Tesla is discontinuing the Model S and Model X to focus on autonomous driving and lower-cost models. The move is part of a larger strategy shift and is not expected to materially impact sales, as these models represent a small fraction of deliveries. The company is converting the production space to manufacture its Optimus robot.

The author performs a DCF analysis on Tesla and concludes that the stock is significantly overvalued at its current price. The intrinsic value is estimated at $42 per share, while the market price is $411. The analysis acknowledges Tesla's strengths but suggests the valuation is based on future potential rather than current cash flows.

主要经营地

Austin, Texas

详细的生意模式

电动车+能源：汽车销售/服务+储能与充电生态；盈利来自规模制造效率、软件/服务附加值与产品迭代

护城河

品牌+规模制造与供应链、软件与数据闭环、充电网络与生态；但竞争加剧下护城河强度会随执行而变

估值水平

FCF/EV 0.3%；TEV/EBITDA 125.34；P/E 386.52

EV/Market Cap

0.98x

网络观点

✅新建仓：认为市场情绪极度悲观时介入；强调创始人领导与竞争优势/工程文化。🌟看点：新车型/自动驾驶/储能放量带来再加速。

AI的观点

✅是“高波动成长+可选长期复利”的组合，但当前估值（倍数高、FCF/EV低）要求重新加速。⚠️价格战压毛利、监管与技术兑现（FSD）不确定。🔎看：汽车毛利（剔除税收/监管积分）、储能毛利与交付、capex与回购。